Multiple reports from various sources have been published in the last few weeks regarding the 2012 forecast for the construction market. All reports point to a continued slow recovery of the construction sector of the economy with one report showing 0 percent growth in 2012.
Associated Builders and Contractors
Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) expects 2012 to be a year of gradual advancement in the industry, primarily driven by private construction. ABC is forecasting that nonresidential construction spending will increase approximately 2.4% in 2012. This is following a decrease of 2.4% in 2011. Along with this increase in nonresidential construction spending, employment is also expected to increase, but very little, at a rate of 0.4%. This increase follows a 2011 year which saw employment in this sector increase by 0.6%.
ABC believes that the increase in nonresidential construction will be driven by the energy and health care sectors of the United States economy. Construction related to the nation's power industry is expected to increase 9% in 2012 and is forecast to end 2011 with a 11.4% increase. States that are expected to see the majority of this construction spending are Texas, Oklahoma, North Dakota and Pennsylvania. Health care is also expected to expand with a projected increase in 2012. With continual changes in demographics, health care reform and overall thawing credit markets, construction in this sector is projected to increase 8% in 2012. Other areas of increase are expected in lodging and office construction but minimal.
These increases are expected to be offset by declines in public spending and education. With state and local government budgets continuing to be squeezed and school districts under pressure to hold the line on spending, public improvement projects in these areas are expected to decline in 2011 by 4%. Overall, ABC forecasts public nonresidential construction spending to slip 2% in 2012.