The Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) is out for the twelve month period of November 2008 through November 2009 and the results are mixed. Despite evidence of a major impact from the stimulus package, the national average CBI declined 18 percent to 5.8 months in November 2009 compared to November 2008.
Overall, November 2009 backlog in all four regions remains below November 2008 levels:
|
Region |
November 2009 |
November 2008 |
|
Northeast |
5.50 |
6.64 |
|
South |
6.52 |
8.73 |
|
Middle States |
4.92 |
5.15 |
|
West |
5.85 |
6.57 |
|
|
|
|
Regional Highlights
Overall backlog has expanded in the South and Middle States over the last few months while it has declined in the West and Northeast. This is consistent with broader economic data that indicates that expansion is occurring in more commodity intensive states like those located in the heartland and throughout the south. Average backlog in the South is highest among all regions at 6.5 months while the Middle States continue to hold the shortest backlog at 4.9 months.
This data is evidence that the worst of the non-residential construction decline is over from a broader economic view. However the concern is with stimulus monies and as they begin to run. How will that impact backlog?
Industry Highlights
Average backlog in the heavy industry category improved significantly to 7.53 months as companies continue to expand exports and increase overall inventory levels. This is the highest for this industry since January 2009. Average backlog in the infrastructure category bounced back toward 11 months after a weaker performance in September and October. Commercial and institutional category was the only segment that sustained a decline in backlog compared to November 2008. However, rising investment and backlog in the heavy and infrastructure industries should sign a possible turn for the good in the commercial and institutional categories.
Company Revenue Highlights
While backlogs for firms categorized as having less than $30 million, $50 million to $75 million and $100 million all saw expansion in backlog. Almost all were still below November 2008 results. Larger companies which are typically most closely associated with infrastructure and heavy industry saw the longest average backlog of 8.5 months. Smaller firms saw backlog closer to the 5 month range.
For more information on this economic report, please contact David B. Blain at dblain@macpas.com.
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